How to Handicap a Horse Race Using Priority and Weight to Develop a Hierarchy
Handicapping a horse race requires the comparison of different factors and arriving at a value for each horse. In other words, the value equals what you think the horse’s chance of winning might be. A simple example would be adding the last three speed figures for each horse and then assigning probable win odds for each horse based on its speed total.
It might look something like this…
1. Flying Aces speed= 220 odds=2-1
2. Rubber Legs speed= 210 odds=3-1
3. Goosey speed= 200 odds= 4-1
etc…
Of course, basing your betting decisions on just one factor isn’t very sophisticated or likely to make a profit. It takes more than that to arrive at a good judgment of each runner’s chances.
That is where weighting the factors becomes important. While speed is important, is it really the most important factor in the race? You have to decide which handicapping factor is the most important and therefore give it the most weight. Practice and keeping notes about each race and class will eventually help you to develop a weighted list of horse racing factors. A hierarchy of factors then is developed and a better understanding of each runner’s chances is revealed.
You may determine that recent speed is worth 60% of the total score, class is worth 30%, and connections are worth 10%. Then, after you have made the calculations for each factor and each horse, a realistic score can be shown and indicate which runner has the best chance of winning.
Experience will then help you to develop a morning line for each horse. It all comes down to probability and value. If you want to make a 20% return on your investment (bets) then you must be able to find bets that are worth at least 20% more than that runner’s chances of winning based on the score. For instance, if I know that a horse has a 25% chance of winning and is going off at odds of 5-1, then I know that for every 4 such horses I bet, one will win and pay $12.00 based on a $2 bet. Since I have bet it 4 times and spent a base amount of $8 and got back $12, I have made $4 profit which is 50% of my investment, a very good return, indeed.
Naturally, while all this sounds good and works out well on paper, in the real world, making a profit betting on horse races is extremely difficult. The reason is that so many people who understand this concept are doing the very same thing and also because racing is such a risky enterprise. Jockeys lose their whips in the stretch, horses fall down, horses are disqualified for bumping, and sometimes, they just don’t run well.
Therefore, if you are lucky and good enough to make 10% profit over the long haul, you are doing very well as a handicapper.
I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. To learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.
